Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfef6…2c98 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-12%) realized −$9 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$39
politics 12% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 -12.1% -20.5% 20% 0% -24.3%
≤90d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 17% -7.9%
all 6 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 17% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 17% -7.9%
10% -24.1% 0% -16.7%
15% -31.5% 0% -24.8%
20% -38.2% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage53d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $271 $211 −$60 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $71 −$16 -22%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $147 +$25 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $89 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $56 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $55 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $96 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 40d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 41d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 41d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 41d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 41d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $65 42d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 42d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 42d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 42d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $51 43d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $102 44d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 52d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.58 · official $210.58 (match) · 69 history records