Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfef5…3855 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$243 (+14%) realized +$265 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%26W / 28L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$60
14 days+$255
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$73
crypto 28% +$34
other 12% +$1
finance 7% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 10 +39.9% +26.6% 60% 60% +37.0%
≤90d 54 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 44% +1.2%
all 54 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 44% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% +1.2%
10% -22.0% 43% -8.5%
15% -29.5% 35% -17.4%
20% -36.4% 35% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$18 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses26 / 28
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage49d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 32¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-47%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Jun 15 $26 −$8 -30%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$93 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$25 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$33 -80%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$38 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$48 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $105 +$147 +140%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 18 $21 +$13 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $66 +$34 +51%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $88 +$22 +25%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 10 $20 −$20 -96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 08 $117 −$2 -2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals May 07 $41 −$10 -25%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $51 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12PM ET May 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $26 +$8 +32%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $25 −$25 -99%
T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Malaysia vs China May 07 $10 −$5 -47%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 07 $95 +$88 +92%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $10 −$10 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $41 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -95%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 06 $10 +$25 +246%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 06 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 03 $76 −$62 -82%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $10 +$5 +54%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3h
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? SELL OpenAI 28¢ $18 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $119 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $125 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 13¢ $7 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $50 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $88 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $26 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $26 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $51 6d
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? BUY OpenAI 38¢ $26 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $99 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $252 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 70¢ $61 30d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 57¢ $51 30d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 94¢ $100 33d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 61¢ $66 33d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $21 38d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 36¢ $20 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.25 · official $115.41 · 116 history records