Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfef4…b452 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$13
politics 25% −$10
sports 24% −$10
crypto 8% +$2
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
economics 3% −$8
finance 3% +$4
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 58 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 109 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 123 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage99d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $265 −$3 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $295 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $168 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $193 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 03 $47 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $51 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $50 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $111 −$2 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $35 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $272 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 21 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $44 55m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 6h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 7h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 12h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 16h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $69 17h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $69 23h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $67 23h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $67 31h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 31h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 35h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $45 36h
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $45 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 40h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $69 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 486 history records