Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

FE 0xfef3…bd16 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$5 (+7%) realized −$4 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +204% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +164% what you keep after slip

Net edge+164%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+175.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+204.1%	+175.1%	25%	25%	+2.6%
≤30d	4	+204.1%	+175.1%	25%	25%	+2.6%
≤90d	4	+204.1%	+175.1%	25%	25%	+2.6%
all	4	+204.1%	+175.1%	25%	25%	+2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+175.1%	25%	+2.6%
10%	+148.8%	25%	-7.3%
15%	+124.8%	25%	-16.2%
20%	+102.7%	25%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +204% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$10 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$30	$36	+$6 (+21%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	63¢	82¢	$7	$9	+$2 (+31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$3	+$34	+1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$2	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	10h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.60 · official $45.60 (match) · 8 history records