Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeef…4b1f sports 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1080 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$127 (+1%) realized +$158 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%78W / 37L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1080.0pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$299
other 40% +$1,116
crypto 3% −$1
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1080 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 39% +8.0%
≤30d 115 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 39% +8.0%
≤90d 115 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 39% +8.0%
all 115 +8.0% -2.3% 68% 39% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1080.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 39% +8.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 23% -2.3%
15% -20.2% 21% -11.8%
20% -28.0% 17% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7,734
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses78 / 37
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions107
Markets (closed)115 / 222
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1080.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? No 93¢ 94¢ $658 $662 +$4 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 52¢ $529 $648 +$119 (+22%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 84¢ $460 $448 −$11 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Paraguay 74¢ 78¢ $336 $352 +$16 (+5%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 74¢ $216 $248 +$31 (+15%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Paraguay 89¢ 92¢ $224 $231 +$7 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 46¢ $204 $198 −$5 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 26¢ $137 $180 +$43 (+31%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 84¢ 88¢ $168 $176 +$8 (+5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 84¢ $178 $168 −$10 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? No 95¢ 94¢ $169 $168 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 68¢ $149 $167 +$19 (+13%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Yibing Wu 8¢ 12¢ $103 $159 +$56 (+54%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 40¢ $129 $155 +$25 (+20%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 72¢ 84¢ $130 $151 +$21 (+16%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? No 66¢ 52¢ $169 $135 −$34 (-20%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 83¢ 88¢ $119 $127 +$8 (+7%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Germany 98¢ 98¢ $115 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? No 98¢ 98¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 56¢ 56¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $101 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? No 97¢ 97¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? No 89¢ 88¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $11 −$1 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $51 −$2 -4%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $263 +$37 +14%
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry Jun 29 $10 −$4 -34%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $68 +$5 +7%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $70 +$25 +36%
Wimbledon WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emiliana Arango Jun 29 $10 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 29 $6 +$1 +10%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $31 −$1 -2%
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 29 $30 −$3 -11%
Wimbledon WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Coco Gauff Jun 29 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,289 +$702 +54%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $39 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $133 +$290 +218%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $48 +$10 +21%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $14 −$2 -13%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $362 +$298 +82%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $142 −$10 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $311 −$132 -42%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $92 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $9 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $57 +$7 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $420 +$5 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $3 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $74 +$30 +40%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$3 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $199 +$5 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $16 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $38 −$6 -17%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $41 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $134 −$37 -28%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 −$5 -53%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $169 +$112 +66%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $66 +$4 +6%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $16 $0 +2%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $143 +$7 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 29 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $195 +$8 +4%
Wimbledon WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 29 $3 $0 +2%
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 29 $53 +$8 +15%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $55 +$8 +14%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 29 $188 +$5 +3%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $33 +$14 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $12 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 15m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 55¢ $28 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $3 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $2 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 15m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $2 15m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $2 15m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 52¢ $10 15m
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 56¢ $49 15m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 30m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 75¢ $1 30m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $1 30m
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Paraguay 96¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $2 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $6 43m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 43m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $4 43m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $41 44m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $24 44m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $51 44m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $48 44m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $10 44m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $27 45m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 75¢ $2 45m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $45 46m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $4 46m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $15 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,733.65 · official $7,733.68 (match) · 1383 history records