Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfeed…ca05 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$903 (-13%) realized −$890 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$1,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$874
7 days−$988
14 days−$989
30 days−$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$997
sports 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 44% -24.9%
≤30d 10 -13.6% -21.9% 60% 40% -24.9%
≤90d 11 -10.4% -18.9% 64% 45% -24.8%
all 14 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 50% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -24.6%
10% -19.7% 29% -31.8%
15% -27.5% 7% -38.4%
20% -34.6% 7% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$364 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$1,219
Realized−$890
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage193d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1,232 $1,219 −$13 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,539 +$293 +19%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $1,611 −$1,149 -71%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $814 −$24 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $284 +$72 +25%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $379 +$24 +6%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $19 +$5 +26%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $483 +$70 +14%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $507 −$283 -56%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? May 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Feb 07 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Dec 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Kings vs. Timberwolves Dec 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $618 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $641 12h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 24h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 24h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $448 24h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $353 28h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 23¢ $4 28h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $31 28h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $2 28h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $2 29h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $29 30h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $393 30h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $196 30h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $196 30h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 45h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 45h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $199 46h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $199 46h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $306 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $88 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $100 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $67 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $89 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $284 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $237 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $814 4d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $402 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.90 · official $1,218.90 (match) · 122 history records