Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfee9…75ce world 50 markets active 9h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% $0
other 7% −$1
politics 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 26 -0.5% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 3% -9.5%
all 48 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage523d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $57 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $291 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $37 −$2 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $11 +$2 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $251 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $226 +$3 +1%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $5 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in January? Mar 04 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Puka Nacua score a touchdown? Feb 06 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the Eagles beat the Rams by 7 or more points? Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $27 8h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $13 10h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $14 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records