Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfee8…9197 sports 555 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized −$186 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%258W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$805
7 days+$1,220
14 days+$399
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$586
other 16% −$813
world 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +18.7% +7.4% 58% 58% +2.1%
≤30d 201 +5.9% -4.1% 56% 55% -7.2%
≤90d 518 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 49% -10.5%
all 518 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 44% -19.1%
15% -27.5% 37% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$57 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$4,516
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses258 / 260
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions37
Markets (closed)518 / 555
History coverage67d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 42¢ 50¢ $781 $948 +$167 (+21%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 79¢ $709 $709 +$1 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 79¢ $568 $568 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 79¢ $526 $554 +$28 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $336 $332 −$4 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 67¢ $183 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $162 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 52¢ 52¢ $156 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 65¢ $99 $115 +$16 (+16%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 78¢ 78¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Dallas Wings 48¢ 48¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 28¢ 28¢ $80 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Under 43¢ 43¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 24¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 66¢ 68¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 42¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Under 84¢ 88¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 88¢ 89¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Chicago Wolves 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 72¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $123 +$543 +442%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$6 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +38%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$14 +325%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $223 −$220 -99%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Jun 14 $198 +$24 +12%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 +$15 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $437 +$47 +11%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$23 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $7 +$30 +442%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $228 +$327 +144%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $397 −$392 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: CD Limache (-1.5) Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 +$13 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $24 +$15 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 13 $56 +$45 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $121 +$184 +152%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $60 +$44 +73%
AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +83%
Derry City FC vs. Bohemians Dublin FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 +$26 +1150%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 +$7 +650%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $200 −$196 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $2 +$5 +233%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $196 −$133 -68%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 12 $23 +$7 +31%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 28¢ $65 0m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $86 20m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $1 20m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $21 21m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $44 42m
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Chicago Wolves 50¢ $15 42m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 48¢ $88 47m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 29¢ $6 48m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $4 49m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 72¢ $11 53m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $223 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $341 25h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $6 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $95 25h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $706 25h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $13 25h
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $39 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $38 25h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 25h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $7 25h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 74¢ $7 25h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 50¢ $4 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $397 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 49¢ $23 2d
Spread: CD Limache (-1.5) BUY CD Limache 20¢ $44 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $571 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 18¢ $7 2d
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda BUY BC Neptunas Klaipeda 46¢ $12 2d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 64¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,516.47 · official $4,516.47 (match) · 1065 history records