Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfee8…4bd3 politics 802 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,628 (-7%) realized −$13,470 · open −$158
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%554W / 241L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$11,972
other 14% +$1,178
world 12% +$396
weather 7% −$1,732
sports 6% −$816
crypto 4% −$771
culture 1% +$187
tech 1% −$192
economics 0% +$8
finance 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 100% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 4 +103.3% +83.9% 100% 75% +13.7%
≤90d 235 -3.8% -12.9% 76% 19% -15.7%
all 795 -4.6% -13.7% 70% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 30% -15.6%
10% -22.0% 26% -23.7%
15% -29.5% 21% -31.1%
20% -36.4% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$172 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized−$13,470
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses554 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)795 / 802
History coverage315d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 795 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $159 $154 −$5 (-3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $109 $113 +$4 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $151 $102 −$48 (-32%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 94¢ 91¢ $88 $86 −$3 (-3%)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $55 $32 −$23 (-42%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? Yes 13¢ $75 $19 −$56 (-74%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 25¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Jun 25 $854 +$68 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania in 2026? Jun 25 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $299 +$90 +30%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $43 +$148 +349%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? May 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s May 14 $0 $0 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? May 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $284 +$26 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? May 07 $67 +$6 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? May 06 $83 +$8 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? May 05 $170 +$15 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026? May 04 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Lunatic" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 01 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Trump name "Nicki / Minaj" in April? May 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $257 +$27 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $218 +$24 +11%
Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 29 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $319 +$39 +12%
Will Trump post "AG" or "Attorney General" on Truth Social this week? Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? Apr 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "Springsteen" on Truth Social this week? Apr 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "Art of the Deal" on Truth Social this week? Apr 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Trump post "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" on Truth Social th Apr 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" on Truth Social t Apr 27 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" on Truth Social this week? Apr 27 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $183 +$45 +24%
Will Trump say "No No No" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $154 −$130 -84%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 26? Apr 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Safe City" or "Safest City" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during WHCA Dinner Apr 26 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 26 $122 +$7 +6%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026? Apr 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $720 +$7 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $683 +$43 +6%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 25 $172 +$54 +31%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? Apr 25 $31 +$3 +8%
Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Pod Apr 25 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 25 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? Apr 24 $407 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $226 +$101 +45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $316 +$23 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $88 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes $113 7h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $159 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $822 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $631 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $165 45h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $379 23d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 52¢ $191 23d
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? BUY No 44¢ $38 32d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s BUY Yes $0 44d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 48d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 48d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 51d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 51d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 51d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 51d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 11¢ $43 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $83 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 54d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 54d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $104 54d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.36 · official $507.92 (match) · 2428 history records