trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -24.7% | -31.9% | 0% | 0% | -31.9% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -10.8% | -19.3% | 50% | 0% | -15.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -10.8% | -19.3% | 50% | 0% | -15.2% |
| all | 15 | -10.8% | -19.3% | 53% | 13% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.3% | 13% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -27.0% | 0% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -34.0% | 0% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -40.5% | 0% | -34.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 18 | $173 | −$43 | -25% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Jun 05 | $340 | +$11 | +3% |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential | Jan 18 | $319 | +$21 | +7% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Oct 25 | $54 | −$6 | -11% |
| X relaunches Vine in 2025? | Oct 25 | $166 | −$6 | -3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Oct 10 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | Oct 08 | $47 | +$7 | +14% |
| OpenAI browser by September 30? | Sep 29 | $129 | +$20 | +16% |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | Sep 29 | $62 | −$45 | -72% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? | Sep 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 15 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31? | Sep 15 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025? | Sep 07 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the | Aug 22 | $125 | −$14 | -12% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? | Aug 05 | $397 | +$6 | +2% |