Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfedd…84b6 crypto 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$11
other 17% +$12
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 18 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,143) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage179d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on April May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 12°C on March 29? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on March 8? Mar 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 8? Mar 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 February 2-8? Feb 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 05 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on January 22? Jan 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18? Jan 22 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? Dec 25 $1,347 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on December 2 Dec 25 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,234 +$2 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? Dec 23 $1,223 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on December 23? Dec 22 $1,222 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on December 22? Dec 22 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 15? Dec 22 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on April BUY No 100¢ $35 50d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 12°C on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $33 80d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on March 8? BUY No 99¢ $12 101d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $21 101d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 106d
Will XRP reach $2.20 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $33 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $32 141d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 145d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18? BUY No 95¢ $31 153d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 172d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on December 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,128 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,238 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,237 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $535 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $43 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $158 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $194 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $146 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $155 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $185 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $217 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? SELL No 100¢ $134 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 175d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22? BUY No 99¢ $30 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.66 · official $35.66 (match) · 55 history records