Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
FE 0xfedc…32d8 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,593 (+60%) realized +$5,596 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days+$45
14 days+$726
30 days+$4,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$4,557
other 18% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.2% -26.0% 31% 31% -7.6%
≤30d 27 +37.6% +24.5% 44% 44% +39.3%
≤90d 27 +37.6% +24.5% 44% 44% +39.3%
all 27 +37.6% +24.5% 44% 44% +39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 44% +39.3%
10% +12.6% 44% +26.0%
15% +1.7% 44% +13.8%
20% -8.3% 44% +2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$658 vs −$229 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$5,596
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage30d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$27 +336%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 −$109 -36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $180 −$176 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $148 −$146 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $240 +$205 +85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 −$147 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $726 −$195 -27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $489 +$541 +111%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $489 +$643 +132%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $788 +$861 +109%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $230 +$521 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $506 −$500 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $294 +$238 +81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $691 −$679 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $489 +$368 +75%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $685 +$445 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $305 +$266 +87%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $233 −$230 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $262 +$2,651 +1010%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $248 −$50 -20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $412 −$403 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $573 +$1,127 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $90 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 32h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 32h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $180 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $180 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $197 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $148 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $445 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $96 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $144 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $150 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,437 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $197 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $479 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,029 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $489 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $1,131 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 42¢ $489 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $1,649 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $786 9d
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY PortlandFire 38¢ $204 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $751 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $230 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.01 · official $85.01 (match) · 57 history records