Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfedb…55be
sports · 1858 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$32 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$24
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses925 / 959
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1884 / 1858
History coverage149d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 20 History 1884 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$104
14 days−$76
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Kings vs. Celtics Kings 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Heat Heat 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India win? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Utah Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Capitals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flyers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Canadiens Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Rockets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Devils Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Suns Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Heat Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$3
sports 16% +$60
other 1% −$2
world 0% −$27
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 25h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $1 30h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 30h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $1 30h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $1 30h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $1 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $1 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $1 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $1 47h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -54.7% -59.0% 21% 21% -59.1%
≤30d 386 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 43% -16.0%
≤90d 989 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 46% -10.2%
all 1884 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 45% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 45% -10.2%
10% -22.8% 43% -18.8%
15% -30.3% 40% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 37% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.88 · official $23.88 (match) · 3500 history records