Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed8…9dd0 sports 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,981 (-5%) realized −$10,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%164W / 239L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$718est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$139
14 days+$89
30 days−$2,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$2,044
other 14% −$1,137
crypto 13% −$6,229
world 2% −$1,571
politics 0% −$90
economics 0% −$129
finance 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.0% -43.0% 50% 50% -34.0%
≤30d 111 -27.6% -34.5% 36% 32% -31.7%
≤90d 211 -15.6% -23.7% 42% 31% -14.5%
all 403 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 30% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 24% -22.6%
15% -37.8% 20% -30.1%
20% -43.9% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$188 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses164 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$718
Open positions0
Markets (closed)403 / 406
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$510
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 403 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $96 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $69 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $75 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $85 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$26 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$361 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$53 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $118 +$36 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $291 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $133 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$114 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$38 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$24 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$49 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$61 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$66 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$114 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$39 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $215 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$132 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $49 +$39 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$86 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $145 +$85 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $137 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$95 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $70 −$66 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $75 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records