Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfed7…2302 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$636 (-21%) realized −$709 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$353
14 days−$353
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$665
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.3% -23.4% 47% 33% -29.2%
≤30d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 31% -35.5%
≤90d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 31% -35.5%
all 29 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 31% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 31% -35.5%
10% -40.2% 21% -41.7%
15% -46.0% 14% -47.3%
20% -51.3% 7% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$58 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage21d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 0¢ 96¢ $0 $73 +$73 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $100 −$39 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $134 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $92 −$23 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $415 −$200 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $300 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $107 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$11 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $65 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $99 −$40 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $192 −$77 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $63 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $65 −$35 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $128 +$59 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $61 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.53 · official $67.22 · 206 history records