Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfed5…7472 other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-5%) realized −$151 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$370
14 days−$331
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$198
sports 19% −$18
crypto 15% −$60
tech 12% −$5
world 6% −$110
culture 5% +$110
politics 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -31.5% -38.0% 36% 34% -40.9%
≤30d 74 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 46% -12.6%
≤90d 74 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 46% -12.6%
all 115 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 37% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -20.9%
10% -27.6% 31% -28.4%
15% -34.6% 26% -35.4%
20% -41.0% 23% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 65
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage421d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $311 $309 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $206 +$9 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +17%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 28 $2 +$3 +129%
South Africa to score first vs. Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$24 +235%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +84%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $15 +$17 +108%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$6 +41%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will LockedIn Poker reach his $100k goal by August 31? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $314 14m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $71 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 75¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3h
South Africa to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 29¢ $2 30h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY No 40¢ $2 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 48¢ $2 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $2 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $34 44h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $10 45h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $8 45h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.88 · official $308.88 (match) · 253 history records