Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfed0…0585 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$208 (-2%) realized −$224 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$684
14 days−$308
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$395
other 39% +$112
crypto 7% +$155
finance 3% −$163
tech 1% +$60
politics 1% +$33
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.8% -19.3% 53% 42% -24.2%
≤30d 27 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 59% -10.1%
≤90d 27 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 59% -10.1%
all 62 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 55% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 55% -11.9%
10% -10.7% 37% -20.3%
15% -19.3% 27% -28.0%
20% -27.2% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$67 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage202d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $28 +$16 (+129%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$51 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $854 −$202 -24%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,010 −$79 -8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,006 +$249 +25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $304 −$14 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $201 +$62 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $560 +$96 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $403 +$70 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $424 +$67 +16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $227 +$196 +86%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Dec 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $42 +$27 +65%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $50 −$8 -16%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 Dec 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5 Dec 13 $71 +$18 +26%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $40 +$16 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Dec 13 $10 +$17 +168%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 12? Dec 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 240.5 Dec 12 $150 +$33 +22%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5 Dec 12 $104 −$103 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 11? Dec 12 $22 +$78 +354%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $210 +$33 +16%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5 Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $92 +$60 +66%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 8? Dec 08 $49 −$49 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $120 +$41 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Dec 07 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times at the FI Dec 06 $78 +$33 +42%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Dec 05 $65 +$6 +9%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 05 $11 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $652 46h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $21 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will P BUY 49¢ $508 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $931 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1,006 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $202 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $202 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $290 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $266 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.50 · official $27.50 (match) · 165 history records