Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfecc…77da weather 411 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,293 (+2%) realized +$3,183 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate54%216W / 186L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$321
14 days+$945
30 days+$1,959
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$4,013
politics 3% +$59
sports 1% +$53
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -43.1% -48.5% 38% 18% -5.4%
≤30d 162 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 20% -5.1%
≤90d 402 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 20% -7.2%
all 402 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 20% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 20% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 16% -16.1%
15% -20.6% 14% -24.2%
20% -28.4% 13% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized+$3,183
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses216 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions9
Markets (closed)402 / 411
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$368
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 68¢ 94¢ $336 $462 +$125 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $214 $216 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? No 94¢ 96¢ $124 $128 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $88 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? No 77¢ 72¢ $77 $72 −$6 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $38 $46 +$9 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $641 +$137 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 −$74 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$114 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $253 −$9 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$39 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $960 +$39 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 +$71 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,556 +$43 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $840 +$157 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$102 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 13 $47 −$43 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 −$119 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 12 $738 +$27 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$52 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,161 +$68 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $600 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,960 +$38 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 +$35 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $54 +$45 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $153 +$47 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 08 $984 +$35 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $447 +$60 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 −$18 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $9 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $8 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 79¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $163 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.40 · official $1,000.77 · 3500 history records