Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeca…e166 weather 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$735 (-15%) realized −$792 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days−$796
14 days−$796
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$324
other 13% −$415
crypto 1% +$1
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.3% -33.3% 47% 29% -31.8%
≤30d 35 -25.3% -32.4% 49% 29% -31.7%
≤90d 35 -25.3% -32.4% 49% 29% -31.7%
all 42 -25.6% -32.7% 50% 31% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 31% -31.6%
10% -39.1% 24% -38.1%
15% -45.0% 17% -44.1%
20% -50.4% 5% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$48 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$1,459
Realized−$792
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)42 / 55
History coverage726d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? No 91¢ 100¢ $490 $540 +$50 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? No 95¢ 95¢ $381 $381 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $109 $107 −$2 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? No 98¢ 98¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? No 88¢ 100¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? No 98¢ 98¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? No 76¢ 76¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? No 84¢ 71¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? No 96¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $567 +$122 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $350 −$75 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $224 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $466 +$51 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$4 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $529 −$71 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $404 −$403 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $418 −$396 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 3? May 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 26? Mar 03 $7 +$3 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 25 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 8AM ET Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Blast airdrop by June 30? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Spain win? Jun 25 $9 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $65 3m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $6 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $5 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $4 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $37 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $16 37m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $35 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 90¢ $90 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 90¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $8 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $33 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 91¢ $4 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 46¢ $57 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 0¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,459.37 · official $1,459.37 (match) · 248 history records