Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec9…79c9 sports 1315 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$351 (-4%) realized −$353 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate73%954W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$148
crypto 16% −$467
other 5% +$171
world 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 83% -9.6%
≤30d 822 -11.1% -19.6% 64% 64% -20.6%
≤90d 1313 -1.0% -10.5% 73% 71% -14.3%
all 1313 -1.0% -10.5% 73% 71% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 71% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 37% -22.5%
15% -26.9% 16% -30.0%
20% -34.0% 13% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$353
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses954 / 359
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1313 / 1315
History coverage72d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 82¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Sarah Rakotomanga 83¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $11 −$3 -24%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $16 −$5 -33%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $11 +$3 +24%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $16 +$3 +22%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $9 +$2 +22%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $2 $0 +27%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $6 −$3 -39%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $2 $0 +29%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $19 −$3 -18%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $9 +$2 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $9 +$2 +21%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 +$1 +23%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 83¢ $2 18m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 82¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ $2 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 83¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 82¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 82¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 83¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 82¢ $2 4h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 82¢ $2 4h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Fiona Ferro 78¢ $2 5h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 72¢ $2 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 78¢ $2 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 82¢ $2 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 81¢ $2 7h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 79¢ $2 7h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 82¢ $2 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 83¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 81¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 82¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 83¢ $2 8h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 82¢ $2 9h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 81¢ $2 9h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 76¢ $2 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 81¢ $2 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 82¢ $2 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 82¢ $2 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 81¢ $2 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 82¢ $2 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 72¢ $2 23h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 82¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.30 · official $10.30 (match) · 3143 history records