Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FE 0xfec8…194a other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$277 (-25%) realized −$288 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+2.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+13.4%	+2.6%	29%	29%	-38.2%
≤30d	14	+13.4%	+2.6%	29%	29%	-38.2%
≤90d	14	+13.4%	+2.6%	29%	29%	-38.2%
all	14	+13.4%	+2.6%	29%	29%	-38.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.6%	29%	-38.2%
10%	-7.2%	21%	-44.2%
15%	-16.2%	14%	-49.6%
20%	-24.4%	14%	-54.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late +62% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$40 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized−$288

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage4d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$100	$111	+$11 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$8	-75%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$20	+196%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$49	+473%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$4	-18%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$10	-62%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$261	−$255	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$5	-5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$306	−$66	-22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$12	+23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$121	−$8	-7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$62	−$21	-35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	16m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$30	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$59	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$6	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$12	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	47¢	$96	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$56	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	17¢	$64	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	39¢	$102	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	46¢	$49	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	42¢	$102	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	45¢	$126	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	35¢	$102	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	80¢	$62	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.62 · official $110.62 (match) · 41 history records