Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec7…b4b2 sports 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$128 (-5%) realized +$9 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%77W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$160
14 days−$177
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$80
other 11% −$152
world 10% −$81
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -5.7% -14.6% 45% 45% -17.9%
≤30d 138 -13.9% -22.1% 48% 43% -16.2%
≤90d 156 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 43% -16.2%
all 159 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 42% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 42% -16.5%
10% -28.9% 36% -24.5%
15% -35.8% 32% -31.8%
20% -42.1% 28% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses77 / 82
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions16
Markets (closed)159 / 175
History coverage130d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 99¢ $9 $58 +$49 (+545%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+143%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 59¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $8 $19 +$11 (+133%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+49%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-64%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 1¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$32 +213%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $64 −$59 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $21 +$24 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$30 +182%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$24 +325%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $53 +$28 +52%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +138%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -26%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $12 +$15 +124%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $24 +$26 +109%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$9 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $121 −$121 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.21 · official $210.70 (match) · 792 history records