Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec7…1594 sports 180 markets active 325d ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,758 (-2%) realized −$13,758 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 103L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,664per market
Trades / day63.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$6,876
other 35% −$54,015
politics 6% +$5,511
world 1% −$2,084
tech 0% −$731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 181 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 32% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 32% -17.5%
10% -22.6% 22% -25.4%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 15% -32.6%
20% -36.9% 12% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$5,043) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,321 vs −$1,565 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,758
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 180
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$3,664
Trades / day63.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $92 −$4 -4%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $59 +$20 +34%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $4 −$3 -79%
League of Legends: DN Freecs Challengers vs. Hanwha Life Esports Chall Aug 07 $56 −$26 -46%
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Anyone's Legend Aug 07 $4,186 −$4,186 -100%
League of Legends: DRX Challengers vs. T1 Academy Aug 07 $2,203 −$2,160 -98%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $43 +$9 +22%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $11 −$11 -100%
League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. ThunderTalk Gaming Aug 05 $1,305 +$678 +52%
League of Legends: Team WE vs. FunPlus Phoenix Aug 04 $2,601 −$1,854 -71%
League of Legends: GIANTX vs. Team Vitality Aug 04 $5,686 +$449 +8%
League of Legends: SK Gaming vs. Fnatic Aug 04 $7,847 +$498 +6%
League of Legends: Disguised vs. Shopify Rebellion Aug 04 $1,685 −$375 -22%
League of Legends: Dignitas vs. Cloud9 Aug 03 $1,200 +$49 +4%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Top Esports Aug 03 $1,123 −$138 -12%
League of Legends: LNG Esports vs. EDward Gaming Aug 03 $500 +$117 +24%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G Aug 03 $1,158 +$71 +6%
League of Legends: Team Heretics vs. Fnatic Aug 02 $1,442 +$111 +8%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Aug 01 $89 −$89 -100%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIA Aug 01 $8,918 −$6,054 -68%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $1 $0 -4%
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Spirit Aug 01 $2,972 +$363 +12%
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. FURIA Aug 01 $1,149 −$828 -72%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $11,414 −$11,383 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Aug 01 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
League of Legends: Ultra Prime vs. LGD Gaming Aug 01 $2,340 −$1,544 -66%
League of Legends: DRX vs. Dplus KIA Aug 01 $8,017 +$3,005 +38%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $25 +$13 +52%
League of Legends: FunPlus Phoenix vs. Invictus Gaming Aug 01 $15,483 −$15,483 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $22,589 −$2,361 -10%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $7,308 −$6,616 -90%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $671 −$617 -92%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $10,257 −$4,776 -47%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $208 −$186 -90%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? Jul 31 $6,441 +$102 +2%
League of Legends: Weibo Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Jul 31 $3,968 +$797 +20%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. Hanwha Life Esports Jul 31 $43 −$43 -100%
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Team WE Jul 31 $4,864 +$1,412 +29%
League of Legends: BNK FEARX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jul 31 $2,200 +$1,439 +65%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Team WE Jul 30 $6,090 +$1,161 +19%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Jul 30 $7,014 −$1,440 -20%
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Natus Vincere Jul 29 $5,058 +$622 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 324d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 324d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 324d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 324d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 324d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 324d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 324d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 324d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 325d
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 325d
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? SELL No 69¢ $10 325d
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 325d
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? SELL No 69¢ $17 325d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 325d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 325d
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 325d
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? BUY No 63¢ $25 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 325d
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 325d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records