Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec7…485a other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$397 (-5%) realized −$344 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$465
other 46% −$1,408
crypto 2% −$58
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$20
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 10 -45.1% -50.3% 20% 20% -47.3%
all 151 -21.3% -28.8% 34% 30% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 30% -21.1%
10% -35.6% 29% -28.7%
15% -41.8% 28% -35.6%
20% -47.5% 23% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 100
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage337d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win? Yes 17¢ $75 $22 −$53 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $64 +$96 +152%
Will Bristol Bears win? May 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5 Apr 05 $39 +$31 +79%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5 Apr 05 $185 −$145 -78%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $194 −$7 -4%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $180 −$78 -43%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Will England win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 01 $300 −$300 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Mar 01 $116 −$41 -35%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $40 −$10 -26%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 01 $100 +$3 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card) Mar 01 $30 +$12 +39%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Flames vs. Kings Mar 01 $10 −$5 -53%
Raptors vs. Wizards Mar 01 $112 +$21 +19%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $20 −$18 -90%
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche Mar 01 $65 +$25 +39%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $20 +$10 +51%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $24 +$20 +82%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $153 +$130 +85%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Feb 28 $90 +$63 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $65 +$25 +38%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $111 +$58 +53%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $50 +$46 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $136 +$243 +178%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $63 −$46 -72%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $192 +$64 +33%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 26 $137 +$74 +54%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 26 $60 −$58 -96%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jack Draper Feb 25 $10 +$7 +69%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Feb 25 $85 +$52 +61%
Celtics vs. Suns Feb 25 $58 +$28 +49%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $60 −$53 -88%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $34 −$24 -71%
Chile Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Cristian Garin Feb 24 $49 +$3 +6%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $10 +$90 +899%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Feb 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $22 −$15 -65%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $40 −$19 -47%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 1h
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Pistons 100¢ $160 35d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $2 35d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $61 35d
Will Bristol Bears win? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 35d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 47d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 47d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $70 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5 SELL Under 100¢ $70 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 55¢ $39 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5 SELL Under 11¢ $40 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5 BUY Under 51¢ $185 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines SELL Michigan Wolverines 49¢ $187 76d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 50¢ $194 76d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini SELL Connecticut Huskies 100¢ $141 76d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 21¢ $80 76d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $30 76d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Connecticut Huskies 70¢ $100 76d
Will England win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $200 107d
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 110d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $100 110d
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes $60 111d
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY Nevada Wolf Pack 40¢ $17 111d
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels SELL UNLV Runnin Rebels 76¢ $78 111d
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY UNLV Runnin Rebels 37¢ $38 111d
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels SELL Nevada Wolf Pack 36¢ $37 111d
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY Nevada Wolf Pack 59¢ $61 111d
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca SELL Vera $4 111d
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca BUY Vera 28¢ $13 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.79 · official $21.83 (match) · 288 history records