Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfec6…b86c sports 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (267 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$402 (+1%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate78%90W / 26L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day266.8pace
Fees−$768est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$407
7 days−$33
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$499
other 35% +$570
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (267 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +29.5% +17.2% 76% 6% -8.9%
≤30d 116 +60.8% +45.5% 78% 13% -8.9%
≤90d 116 +60.8% +45.5% 78% 13% -8.9%
all 116 +60.8% +45.5% 78% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover266.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.5% 13% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here +31.5% 5% -17.6%
15% +18.8% 4% -25.6%
20% +7.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +88% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$58 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses90 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$768
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage11d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day266.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Under 72¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $800 +$7 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $383 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $258 +$7 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $250 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $150 −$26 -18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $512 +$9 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$5 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $158 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $217 +$5 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $183 +$8 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $215 +$17 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $535 +$20 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $715 +$49 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $742 +$15 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $698 +$31 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,418 +$227 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $621 +$4 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $701 +$7 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,097 +$19 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $178 −$12 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $430 +$7 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $866 −$291 -34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,415 +$58 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $704 +$26 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $750 +$20 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $452 +$3 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,982 +$40 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $604 +$32 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,527 +$43 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $303 +$5 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $309 +$3 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $141 +$5 +4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $565 −$49 -9%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1,342 +$30 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $280 +$18 +7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $579 +$11 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $771 +$20 +3%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $218 −$2 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$17 +9%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $297 +$30 +10%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $502 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 43¢ $120 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $27 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $8 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $8 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 0m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 1m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 39¢ $50 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 39¢ $1 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $39 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 37¢ $100 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $19 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $23 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $36 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 38¢ $62 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 38¢ $38 4m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 5m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $9 5m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 5m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 5m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 5m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $0 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 2968 history records