Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfec6…1f2b other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$909 (-26%) realized −$915 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$113
politics 25% −$288
other 19% −$41
economics 9% −$305
world 8% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.8% +22.9% 33% 33% +66.4%
≤30d 3 +35.8% +22.9% 33% 33% +66.4%
≤90d 17 -19.7% -27.3% 29% 29% -21.3%
all 49 -30.6% -37.2% 22% 22% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 22% -36.4%
10% -43.2% 18% -42.5%
15% -48.7% 18% -48.0%
20% -53.7% 14% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$54 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$915
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage704d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $120 $137 +$17 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $55 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$33 +136%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 03 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 03 $72 +$31 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 03 $73 +$94 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 03 $38 +$66 +174%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 03 $52 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 03 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 03 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO? Jan 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jan 14 $623 −$623 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2PM ET Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $100 +$167 +167%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $70 +$406 +578%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 13 $75 −$4 -6%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $100 −$49 -49%
Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 11 $30 −$18 -58%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 07 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $123 −$123 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Nov 15 $210 −$171 -82%
Will Biden stumble during his dropout speech? Jul 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Jul 24 $160 +$64 +40%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $219 +$29 +13%
Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out? Jul 21 $11 −$4 -39%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Jul 18 $16 −$4 -22%
Will POPCAT reach $1b first? Jul 18 $14 +$3 +18%
Trump speaks on RNC Day 2? Jul 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win in extra time? Jul 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Lamine Yamal score? Jul 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 15 $88 −$87 -99%
Will Spain win in extra time? Jul 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Dani Olmo be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? Jul 14 $81 +$213 +264%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $123 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $7 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $94 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $72 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $73 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 45d
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $13 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 45d
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $21 50d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 50d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $16 50d
Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.93 · official $282.93 (match) · 120 history records