Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfec4…cfc8 other 711 markets active 2d ago coverage 113d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$911 (+4%) realized +$797 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%420W / 457L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$489
7 days−$500
14 days−$188
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,073
finance 17% +$202
politics 6% +$78
sports 6% +$220
weather 5% +$55
crypto 5% −$100
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$8
tech 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -85.3% -86.7% 7% 1% -29.6%
≤30d 389 -18.8% -26.5% 33% 13% -7.9%
≤90d 684 +26.1% +14.1% 42% 21% -6.6%
all 877 +23.2% +11.5% 48% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 26% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here +0.8% 21% -15.4%
15% -8.9% 17% -23.6%
20% -17.8% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized+$797
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses420 / 457
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions59
Markets (closed)877 / 711
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 877 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? No 46¢ 74¢ $116 $187 +$71 (+62%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $149 $166 +$17 (+12%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 31¢ 82¢ $61 $161 +$100 (+165%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $136 $141 +$5 (+4%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Yes 86¢ 56¢ $184 $120 −$64 (-35%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $112 $117 +$5 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$3 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 96¢ 92¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will New Zealand go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 95¢ 90¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-5%)
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 95¢ 88¢ $48 $44 −$3 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 80¢ 93¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+16%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 72¢ 86¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+19%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Dplus Challengers win LCK CL 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 82¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Argentina record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 72¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 441 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 12? Jun 17 $5 −$23 -480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 37h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 40h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 40h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $53 40h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 40h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 40h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 41h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 41h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $288 41h
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 90¢ $5 42h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $203 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 46h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 46h
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $18 2d
Will Curaçao go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Haiti concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Haiti concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 82¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,685.56 · official $1,685.09 (match) · 3500 history records