Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfec2…75c8 world 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$625 (+139%) realized +$625 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +139% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip
Net edge+116%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$640
30 days+$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$19
other 20% +$656
politics 10% −$1
sports 8% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+116.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 40% -2.3%
≤30d 11 +139.2% +116.4% 55% 36% +119.6%
≤90d 11 +139.2% +116.4% 55% 36% +119.6%
all 11 +139.2% +116.4% 55% 36% +119.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +116.4% 36% +119.6%
10% +95.7% 27% +98.6%
15% +76.8% 9% +79.4%
20% +59.4% 9% +61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +139% · $-wt +143% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$8 · ×14.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.97 per $1 lost it wins $17.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 20 $41 +$11 +27%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$6 +14%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $69 −$1 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $41 +$646 +1567%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 +$14 +33%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 10 $62 +$1 +1%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL Yes $29 4m
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes $14 24m
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY Yes $15 24m
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $52 27m
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $45 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes $17 20h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes $18 20h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $18 21h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $18 21h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes $44 21h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes $23 25h
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes $22 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 68¢ $68 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 69¢ $69 7d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $21 9d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $28 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $28 9d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 9d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova $17 10d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova $17 10d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL Yes $63 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records