Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FE 0xfec2…5c97 tech 15 markets active 12h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$417 (+38%) realized +$417 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$439
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$842
other 43% −$439
tech 3% −$1
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 +44.2% +30.5% 50% 50% -23.5%
≤90d 11 +33.9% +21.1% 91% 27% +25.0%
all 15 +18.5% +7.2% 87% 20% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 20% +23.5%
10% -3.1% 20% +11.7%
15% -12.4% 20% +0.9%
20% -21.0% 20% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$220 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$417
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage169d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $448 −$439 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $182 +$343 +188%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $167 +$234 +140%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 16 $11 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic May 16 $190 +$265 +140%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $11 $0 +5%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 10 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records