Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfebe…4f17 politics 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$5
sports 23% −$5
other 9% −$2
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
all 56 -6.4% -15.3% 11% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage268d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $78 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $1 $0 -33%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $530 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 -25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 04 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $1 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 12 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 05 $83 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 02 $448 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 02 $455 −$2 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 30 $450 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 105d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 109d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $77 112d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $77 121d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 136d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 137d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 138d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 138d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $75 138d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $75 140d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $77 141d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $77 142d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $75 143d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $75 143d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 144d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $77 145d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 146d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 147d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $76 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $77 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $77 150d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 151d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 153d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $77 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.81 · official $77.81 (match) · 246 history records