Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb9…95c9 crypto 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (627 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,416 (-66%) realized −$15,419 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate29%48W / 119L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day627.0pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$427
sports 47% +$193
other 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (627 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 16% -14.2%
≤30d 167 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 16% -14.2%
≤90d 167 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 16% -14.2%
all 167 -14.2% -22.4% 29% 16% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover627.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 16% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 10% -22.4%
15% -36.6% 9% -29.9%
20% -42.8% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$54 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$15,419
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses48 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 148
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$157
Trades / day627.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 48¢ 50¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $37 −$233 -634%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Pierre Antoine Faut vs Elijah Sanogo Jun 17 $517 −$29 -6%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $306 +$1,354 +442%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $582 −$98 -17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $248 +$501 +202%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 −$393 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $584 −$579 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $518 −$509 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $309 −$97 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $251 −$247 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $360 +$262 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $139 −$33 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$44 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 48¢ $97 2h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Pierre Antoine Faut vs Elijah Sanogo SELL Pierre Antoine Faut 75¢ $489 3h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Pierre Antoine Faut vs Elijah Sanogo BUY Pierre Antoine Faut 80¢ $319 4h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Pierre Antoine Faut vs Elijah Sanogo BUY Pierre Antoine Faut 78¢ $199 4h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 17¢ $29 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 17¢ $40 5h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 44¢ $38 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Adela Polakovicova 44¢ $12 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $306 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $24 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $46 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $166 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $12 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $55 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $28 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $24 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $87 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $11 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 60¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $25 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $135 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $3 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $32 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $89 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $26 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $223 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 3500 history records