Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb7…0c69 world 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-7%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$2
sports 25% −$81
culture 20% −$2
other 12% −$8
politics 7% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.8% -2.4% 100% 0% -2.4%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 23% 8% -9.3%
all 51 -4.0% -13.2% 29% 4% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -16.1%
10% -21.5% 2% -24.2%
15% -29.1% 0% -31.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$2 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $66 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -16%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $75 −$1 -2%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 14 $83 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $83 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 10 $108 −$83 -76%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 27 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $23 12m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $11 12m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $32 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $32 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records