Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfeb5…a393 crypto 345 markets active 63d ago coverage 258d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 257d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$521,457 (+63%) realized +$521,990 · open −$533
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%218W / 106L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2,398per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 258d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48,361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 13 +60.9% +45.5% 85% 62% -47.3%
all 324 +18.9% +7.6% 67% 49% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 49% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 35% -13.2%
15% -12.1% 26% -21.6%
20% -20.7% 21% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$3,345) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$879 vs −$1,346 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$29,161
Realized+$521,990
Unrealized−$533
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses218 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)324 / 345
History coverage258d ⚠
Avg bet$2,398
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.40 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 84¢ $6,293 $8,596 +$2,303 (+37%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $4,853 $5,415 +$562 (+12%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 64¢ $3,894 $4,499 +$604 (+16%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 59¢ $2,867 $3,378 +$511 (+18%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $2,088 $2,300 +$212 (+10%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 84¢ $725 $1,300 +$575 (+79%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 23¢ $1,470 $1,081 −$389 (-26%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 10¢ $5,049 $708 −$4,341 (-86%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 29¢ $644 $629 −$16 (-2%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 37¢ $466 $476 +$10 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ 11¢ $440 $255 −$185 (-42%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 92¢ $146 $211 +$66 (+45%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 90¢ $104 $172 +$68 (+66%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 90¢ $41 $67 +$26 (+62%)
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 96¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 90¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+507%)
Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 91¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+168%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 92¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+362%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 89¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+89%)
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $7 $2 −$4 (-67%)
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+147%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 01 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 01 $748 +$189 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $759 −$759 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 01 $1,118 +$71 +6%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 01 $1,840 +$160 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $8,019 −$8,019 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in April? Apr 20 $1,848 +$1,142 +62%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in April? Apr 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April? Apr 17 $0 $0 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 01 $0 +$1 +426%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $9 +$10 +113%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $81 +$75 +92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $431 +$879 +204%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $772 +$230 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $1,838 +$833 +45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 13 $13,834 +$3,718 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Mar 02 $266 −$48 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 01 $924 +$76 +8%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 01 $1,705 +$301 +18%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 01 $2,826 +$175 +6%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? Mar 01 $3,016 +$283 +9%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 01 $3,094 +$713 +23%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 01 $3,971 +$1,306 +33%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 01 $4,860 +$573 +12%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in February? Mar 01 $2,862 +$2,754 +96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 01 $9,231 +$769 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 01 $24,828 +$4,399 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 27 $2,347 +$150 +6%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Feb 27 $3,695 +$254 +7%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February? Feb 27 $2,085 +$120 +6%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Feb 25 $940 +$58 +6%
Will Solana dip to $90 in February? Feb 08 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February? Feb 08 $16,800 −$14,963 -89%
Will Solana dip to $70 in February? Feb 08 $4,655 −$4,655 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $360 −$230 -64%
Will Solana dip to $80 in February? Feb 06 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in February? Feb 06 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $1,915 −$1,892 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 06 $2,657 +$928 +35%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $538 −$538 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? Feb 05 $83 +$11 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $1,419 +$213 +15%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in February? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 in February? Feb 02 $608 −$361 -59%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in February? Feb 02 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $798 +$202 +25%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 01 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $4,386 −$4,386 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 94¢ $926 64d
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 64d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 92¢ $916 65d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 92¢ $924 65d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 95¢ $92 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $55 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,475 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,327 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 60¢ $600 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,161.21 · official $29,068.06 (match) · 3500 history records