Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfeb5…9390 crypto 298 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-12%) realized −$89 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%85W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$108
other 22% −$28
sports 10% −$3
world 1% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -49.9% -54.6% 18% 16% -35.9%
≤30d 180 -27.8% -34.7% 26% 24% -27.7%
≤90d 284 -20.7% -28.3% 30% 26% -23.1%
all 284 -20.7% -28.3% 30% 26% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 26% -23.1%
10% -35.2% 24% -30.5%
15% -41.4% 24% -37.2%
20% -47.2% 21% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses85 / 199
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)284 / 298
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$60 +388%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +219%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.96 · official $31.98 (match) · 891 history records