Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

FE 0xfeb4…13b6 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$343 (-4%) realized −$204 · open −$139

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$565per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$98est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$1,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$268

14 days−$757

30 days−$757

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-25.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+262.4%	+227.9%	100%	100%	+227.9%
≤30d	6	-24.6%	-31.8%	17%	17%	-69.4%
≤90d	6	-24.6%	-31.8%	17%	17%	-69.4%
all	7	-17.9%	-25.8%	29%	29%	-11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.8%	29%	-11.4%
10%	-32.9%	14%	-19.9%
15%	-39.4%	14%	-27.6%
20%	-45.3%	14%	-34.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -68% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$459 vs −$205 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.9 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage

Net worth$1,147

Realized−$204

Unrealized−$139

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$98

Open positions6

Markets (closed)7 / 14

History coverage692d

Avg bet$565

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$500	$440	−$60 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$200	$233	+$33 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$287	$197	−$90 (-31%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	No	34¢	36¢	$100	$107	+$7 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$100	$107	+$7 (+7%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	15¢	10¢	$100	$64	−$36 (-36%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$268	+262%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 12	$2,129	−$559	-26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 11	$102	−$55	-54%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 11	$4	$0	-10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 07	$315	−$310	-98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Aug 23	$2,940	+$651	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	34¢	$102	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN	BUY	8¢	$103	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$550	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	8d
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	19¢	$1,482	9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2,129	10d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Derrick Lewis	21¢	$44	10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$96	10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	50¢	$315	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	23¢	$102	13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$982	14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$513	14d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	47¢	$3,591	667d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2,940	692d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,147.34 · official $1,147.65 (match) · 37 history records