Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FE 0xfeb4…2d0a other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$823 (+4%) realized +$877 · open −$54

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,937per market

Trades / day31.0pace

Fees−$56est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$3,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-8.0%	-16.8%	56%	33%	-10.7%
≤30d	9	-8.0%	-16.8%	56%	33%	-10.7%
≤90d	9	-8.0%	-16.8%	56%	33%	-10.7%
all	9	-8.0%	-16.8%	56%	33%	-10.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover31.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.8%	33%	-10.7%
10%	-24.8%	33%	-19.2%
15% ← realistic here	-32.0%	22%	-27.0%
20%	-38.7%	11%	-34.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$488 vs −$667 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3,585

Realized+$877

Unrealized−$54

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$56

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,937

Trades / day31.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$2,000	$2,012	+$12 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$1,640	$1,573	−$66 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 27	$2,393	+$1,180	+49%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$3,741	−$2,636	-70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$3,759	+$352	+9%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$1,803	+$565	+31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4,998	+$340	+7%
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq?	Jun 26	$916	−$24	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$4	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$4	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$6	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,664	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$2,011	1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	90¢	$3,367	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	4¢	$313	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	22¢	$211	1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	56¢	$206	1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$2,393	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	72¢	$2,397	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$795	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	34¢	$792	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	35¢	$1,182	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	58¢	$1,185	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$534	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	59¢	$529	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2,964	7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,814	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	84¢	$1,181	7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	97¢	$2,416	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	88¢	$1,187	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$893	9h
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq?	SELL Yes	77¢	$892	9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$2,002	11h
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq?	BUY Yes	78¢	$916	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	SELL Down	14¢	$1	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	79¢	$2,922	11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$2,996	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,585.24 · official $3,585.24 (match) · 32 history records