Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb4…8704 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-5%) realized +$14 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$34
world 14% −$100
crypto 11% −$63
sports 8% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -30.3% -37.0% 40% 40% -13.3%
≤30d 10 -30.3% -37.0% 40% 40% -13.3%
≤90d 10 -30.3% -37.0% 40% 40% -13.3%
all 12 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 50% -12.6%
10% -29.4% 50% -21.0%
15% -36.2% 50% -28.6%
20% -42.5% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$35 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage93d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 45¢ 95¢ $50 $107 +$57 (+113%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 66¢ 12¢ $123 $23 −$100 (-81%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$41 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$49 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$63 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Mar 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $39 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 6d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 45¢ $51 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $123 79d
Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 67¢ $10 90d
Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 20.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $3 93d
Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 60¢ $3 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.05 · official $235.05 (match) · 38 history records