Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb3…a55a other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
world 27% −$4
politics 18% +$2
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 0% -10.5%
all 52 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage396d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $10 −$4 -46%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $32 $0 +1%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $3 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $28 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $19 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $40 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.48 · official $40.48 (match) · 150 history records