Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfeb1…a66d other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$8
other 29% −$63
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$65 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $180 $172 −$7 (-4%)
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 28¢ 32¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 44¢ $26 1h
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $31 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 1h
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.56 · official $293.56 (match) · 10 history records