Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfeb0…20bb crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$968 (-41%) realized −$967 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%145W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$11
30 days−$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$964
crypto 8% −$19
politics 4% +$3
other 3% +$3
weather 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 29% -6.7%
≤30d 205 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 27% -47.1%
≤90d 205 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 27% -47.1%
all 205 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 27% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 27% -47.1%
10% -22.9% 16% -52.1%
15% -30.3% 11% -56.8%
20% -37.2% 9% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$967
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses145 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)205 / 207
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 71¢ 73¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $1 +$2 +169%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +912%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 45h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 95¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 91¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.33 · official $34.33 (match) · 399 history records