Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfeb0…202f sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$545 (+2%) realized +$545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$740per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$158
14 days+$460
30 days+$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$842
tech 21% +$40
other 7% +$75
weather 5% +$15
crypto 2% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.7% -38.2% 60% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 18 -19.4% -27.0% 61% 28% -6.2%
≤90d 33 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 27% -6.7%
all 33 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 27% -6.7%
10% -23.4% 15% -15.6%
15% -30.8% 12% -23.7%
20% -37.6% 12% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$79 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage78d
Avg bet$740
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,102 +$253 +23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,090 +$42 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $3,080 +$10 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,237 +$13 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $985 +$17 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$302 +197%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$31 -74%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,807 +$248 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $345 −$343 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $6,834 +$262 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $807 +$82 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $850 +$150 +18%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $1,908 +$98 +5%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $93 −$47 -50%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $60 +$119 +198%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Apr 29 $147 +$3 +2%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $116 −$42 -36%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $206 −$95 -46%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $40 +$32 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10 Apr 11 $997 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $320 −$75 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 07 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 2? Apr 02 $56 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 2? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $590 +$24 +4%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $750 +$39 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 31 $20 −$7 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $1,355 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $101 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $101 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $900 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $804 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $126 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $102 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $70 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $74 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $817 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $71 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 100¢ $249 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 100¢ $2,164 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 100¢ $667 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 98¢ $804 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 98¢ $181 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 26¢ $129 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $51 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records