Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfeae…19a6 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate84%26W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$22
crypto 36% +$2
other 2% +$7
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -3.9% -13.1% 84% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 6% -10.6%
10% -21.4% 6% -19.1%
15% -29.0% 6% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses26 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage598d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 17 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? Mar 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $27 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $476 −$10 -2%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 04 $6 +$4 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Nov 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JD Vance say "fake news" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 01 $12 +$12 +100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $674 −$13 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 98¢ $28 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $28 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? BUY No 99¢ $28 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $28 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $28 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $28 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 85d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $33 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $14 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $28 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $28 134d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 139d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 20¢ $2 508d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 518d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY No 42¢ $8 590d
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 594d
Will JD Vance say "fake news" during the Joe Rogan podcast? BUY No 50¢ $12 594d
Will JD Vance say "fake news" during the Joe Rogan podcast? BUY No 50¢ $1 594d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 65 history records