Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfea8…47aa other 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$24,912 (-5%) realized −$24,512 · open −$400
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%127W / 41L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,613per market
Trades / day136.1pace
Fees−$2,026est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$20,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$4,138
sports 24% −$11,852
politics 4% −$639
crypto 3% +$4,373
world 2% +$622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 31% -8.8%
≤30d 168 +13.5% +2.7% 76% 34% -10.4%
≤90d 168 +13.5% +2.7% 76% 34% -10.4%
all 168 +13.5% +2.7% 76% 34% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.7% 34% -10.4%
10% -7.1% 17% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -16.1% 15% -26.8%
20% -24.3% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,801) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$817 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$20,101
Realized−$24,512
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses127 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2,026
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2,613
Trades / day136.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $14,877 $14,944 +$68 (+0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 76¢ 88¢ $1,675 $1,932 +$257 (+15%)
Will England win? No 41¢ 46¢ $1,618 $1,787 +$169 (+10%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 25¢ 14¢ $1,573 $849 −$723 (-46%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $305 $132 −$173 (-57%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? Netherlands 45¢ 48¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins Jun 17 $25 +$30 +122%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,245 −$565 -25%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15,644 +$138 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,578 +$2 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $4,391 +$330 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6,713 −$6,713 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,805 +$61 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,732 +$190 +7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $9,861 +$357 +4%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,405 +$75 +3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $876 +$20 +2%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $6,700 +$301 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 16 $92 −$85 -92%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7,831 +$475 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3,530 +$147 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,079 +$60 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $706 +$148 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $3,173 +$65 +2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $422 −$21 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4,008 +$330 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $4,008 +$316 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4,008 +$536 +13%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5,344 +$798 +15%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,511 +$56 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,285 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4,539 +$116 +3%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,703 +$1,392 +52%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6,453 +$118 +2%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2,935 +$326 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,233 +$2,798 +66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,016 +$422 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4,008 +$547 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4,008 +$396 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3,318 +$632 +19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,785 +$51 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $14,736 +$211 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $870 +$119 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,660 +$28 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,672 +$102 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5,870 +$686 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $93 −$2 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $93 +$114 +122%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $91 −$84 -92%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $620 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,023 +$549 +14%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $29 +$4 +15%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,023 +$447 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY Netherlands 45¢ $27 2m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY Netherlands 45¢ $16 5m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2,498 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $903 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $34 19m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $15 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $21 22m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $4 23m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $15 23m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $71 25m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $106 26m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $10 26m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $139 28m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7 29m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2 30m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7 30m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $49 33m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $3 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $71 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $137 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $212 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $353 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7 36m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $353 37m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $18 37m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $135 38m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY Netherlands 45¢ $1 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY Netherlands 45¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $7,261 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,100.77 · official $20,100.77 (match) · 3500 history records