Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfea5…ee06 weather 375 markets active 8h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$862 (-11%) realized −$775 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%95W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day67.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$747
14 days−$826
30 days−$823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$914
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -5.1% -14.1% 25% 25% -18.8%
≤30d 365 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 26% -16.4%
≤90d 366 -4.7% -13.8% 26% 26% -16.4%
all 366 -4.7% -13.8% 26% 26% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 26% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 26% -24.4%
15% -29.6% 26% -31.7%
20% -36.5% 26% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$18 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$775
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses95 / 271
Open positions9
Markets (closed)366 / 375
History coverage31d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day67.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $23 $53 +$30 (+128%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $18 $50 +$32 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$49 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$8 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$29 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$11 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$35 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$25 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$13 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $37 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $12 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$27 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$33 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$38 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$134 +323%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$22 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 −$29 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$11 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.92 · official $142.92 (match) · 2232 history records