Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfea3…d227
sports · 126 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,334,333 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,173,034 · open +$139,625
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$927,488
Realized+$2,173,034
Unrealized+$139,625
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses49 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$17,526
Open positions67
Markets (closed)79 / 126
History coverage12d
Avg bet$175,666
Trades / day262.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 67 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$227,644
7 days−$453,556
14 days+$2,173,034
30 days+$2,173,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 46¢ 80¢ $99,626 $172,452 +$72,826 (+73%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 47¢ 80¢ $60,738 $104,533 +$43,794 (+72%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $77,151 $83,313 +$6,162 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $77,398 $80,068 +$2,669 (+3%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 96¢ 89¢ $84,535 $78,228 −$6,307 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $48,742 $49,352 +$611 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 20¢ 19¢ $48,224 $45,933 −$2,291 (-5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 62¢ 64¢ $42,485 $44,198 +$1,713 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $40,353 $41,175 +$821 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $34,417 $34,851 +$434 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $29,816 $30,275 +$458 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $20,411 $20,620 +$209 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $19,001 $19,391 +$390 (+2%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 72¢ $14,283 $18,438 +$4,154 (+29%)
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Soto 27¢ 84¢ $4,627 $14,376 +$9,749 (+211%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ 40¢ $14,988 $13,674 −$1,314 (-9%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 44¢ 44¢ $12,935 $12,882 −$53 (-0%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 20¢ 26¢ $10,000 $12,750 +$2,750 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $11,601 $11,591 −$10 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10,736 $10,854 +$118 (+1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ 77¢ $5,681 $6,643 +$962 (+17%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 33¢ 59¢ $3,137 $5,590 +$2,452 (+78%)
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 79¢ 99¢ $1,817 $2,273 +$455 (+25%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $2,092 $1,903 −$189 (-9%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 92¢ $1,878 $1,845 −$33 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $28,309 −$28,309 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $19,660 −$19,660 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $102,543 +$78,845 +77%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $30,350 +$10,603 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $8 +$1 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5,844 −$5,844 -100%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 12 $5,850,004 $0 +0%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $534 −$534 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Second half draw? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +61%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $131,372 +$92,917 +71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $361,716 −$355,716 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $993 +$7 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $1,029 +$21 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $1,029 +$21 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $1,203 +$12 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 11 $1,322 +$1 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $3,184 −$3,184 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $276 −$276 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3,579 +$3,304 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $8,200 −$8,200 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-0 through 3 games? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $10,610 −$172 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $45,156 −$637 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $27,581 −$27,234 -99%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 08 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $15,363 +$186 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $48,594 −$48,594 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $131,250 +$34,079 +26%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $1,150 +$266 +23%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $1,042 +$264 +25%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $70,314 +$18,286 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $5,076 −$5,076 -100%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $256 $0 +0%
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $1,962 +$7 +0%
Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $243 +$2 +1%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $1,859 +$570 +31%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $667 +$99 +15%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $95 −$95 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203,030 −$188,967 -93%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 +$8 +17%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $512 −$512 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $14,984 −$4,644 -31%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $1,259 +$395 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% +$2,600,000
crypto 37% +$48,939
sports 6% −$397,766
other 2% +$60,890
world 0% +$574
weather 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $304 35m
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 35m
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 35m
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 35m
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $939 35m
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $466 36m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $1 42m
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $475 42m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $1 2h
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $68 7h
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $242 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $35 8h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 11h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 11h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 11h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 11h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 11h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 11h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $4 11h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 11h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY No 74¢ $7 11h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $1 12h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $19 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -18.9% -26.7% 59% 30% -15.3%
≤30d 79 +58.6% +43.5% 62% 41% -0.5%
≤90d 79 +58.6% +43.5% 62% 41% -0.5%
all 79 +58.6% +43.5% 62% 41% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover262.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.5% 41% -0.5%
10% +29.8% 35% -10.0%
15% ← realistic here +17.3% 24% -18.7%
20% +5.8% 24% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927,488.43 · official $927,488.44 (match) · 3500 history records