Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FE 0xfe9e…6944 politics 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$679 (-5%) realized −$1,357 · open +$678
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$106
14 days+$276
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$183
other 40% −$1,244
sports 7% +$296
tech 1% +$42
crypto 1% −$121
world 1% −$22
economics 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.4% +27.9% 67% 67% +24.5%
≤30d 25 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% -2.6%
≤90d 36 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 39% -23.1%
all 41 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 37% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 37% -23.2%
10% -22.1% 34% -30.5%
15% -29.7% 22% -37.2%
20% -36.6% 15% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$109 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$3,870
Realized−$1,357
Unrealized+$678
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)41 / 51
History coverage366d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 55¢ 72¢ $2,062 $2,667 +$605 (+29%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $348 $370 +$22 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 63¢ 84¢ $124 $166 +$42 (+34%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $153 $145 −$8 (-6%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 48¢ 55¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 58¢ 54¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 81¢ 71¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 15¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $97 −$12 -13%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $83 +$92 +111%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 14 $201 +$40 +20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$290 +284%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 11 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 11 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 11 $82 +$88 +108%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 10 $202 −$29 -14%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $89 −$86 -97%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 08 $101 +$31 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $103 −$101 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $101 +$74 +73%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $304 +$129 +42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $62 +$26 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $95 +$27 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $126 −$121 -96%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 01 $202 −$6 -3%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -97%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $20 −$8 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? May 24 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $706 +$164 +23%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $530 −$520 -98%
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? May 18 $68 −$54 -79%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5,265 −$1,258 -24%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $10 −$7 -63%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 11 $705 −$3 -0%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar May 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $201 +$5 +3%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 08 $106 −$40 -38%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina May 07 $21 −$10 -48%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $27 −$14 -51%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 11 $69 −$42 -61%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 16 $34 −$5 -14%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jul 16 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 25 $10 +$33 +333%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 28¢ $97 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 36¢ $152 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 68¢ $85 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $97 4d
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 37¢ $100 4d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 81¢ $101 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $102 4d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $24 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $101 5d
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 79¢ $101 6d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 51¢ $32 6d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 6d
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9d
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 25¢ $54 9d
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 29¢ $51 9d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 9d
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 9d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica SELL No 100¢ $63 9d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica SELL Yes 97¢ $170 9d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 44¢ $51 10d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes 56¢ $173 10d
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect SELL Yes 1¢ $3 10d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica BUY No 78¢ $50 11d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica BUY Yes 46¢ $31 11d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica BUY Yes 45¢ $51 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $74 13d
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 13d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $28 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,869.55 · official $3,869.55 (match) · 141 history records