Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FE 0xfe9c…5cf3 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+8%) realized +$60 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$64
sports 35% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +65.0% +49.3% 50% 50% +125.1%
≤30d 2 +65.0% +49.3% 50% 50% +125.1%
≤90d 2 +65.0% +49.3% 50% 50% +125.1%
all 2 +65.0% +49.3% 50% 50% +125.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.3% 50% +125.1%
10% +35.0% 50% +103.5%
15% +21.9% 50% +83.9%
20% +10.0% 50% +65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +149% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +149% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$10 · ×7.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.04 per $1 lost it wins $7.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$70 +230%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 1 BUY 1¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 33¢ $255 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 1 BUY 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 2 - 0 BUY 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: Colombia 2 - BUY 1¢ $10 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 6¢ $51 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 13¢ $103 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 9¢ $57 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 8¢ $46 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 0 BUY 1¢ $21 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 32¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? AND Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Ir BUY 2¢ $19 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 30¢ $31 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.27 · official $628.27 · 20 history records