Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe9c…ae8e
sports · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$266 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$248 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$248
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 47
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage142d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$230
14 days−$230
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 8¢ 6¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-76%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Down 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B NRG 13¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 29¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Spirit 7¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner 3DMAX 25¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner NRG 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 24¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Heroic 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 22¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B 3DMAX 20¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? Down 16¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner FaZe 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Liquid 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $119 −$116 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $31 −$28 -91%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $437 +$150 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $103 +$30 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $64 +$83 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-12 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $28 +$73 +257%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $19 +$9 +48%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $19 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $53 −$28 -53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 11 $84 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Feb 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 07 $69 −$2 -2%
Will Denis Lazavik win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $43 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $18 +$42 +231%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $44 −$44 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $243 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $80 −$46 -58%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $40 +$32 +81%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Feb 02 $20 +$25 +125%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Feb 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Feb 02 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Feb 01 $100 +$101 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $28 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$327
world 27% +$307
finance 13% −$51
other 9% −$192
culture 3% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 6¢ $21 53m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 1¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 1¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 1¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 5¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 3¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 4¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 9¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 8¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 14¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 32¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 25¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $36 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $10 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 7¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -62.0% -65.6% 23% 23% -19.1%
≤90d 16 -69.1% -72.1% 19% 19% -21.5%
all 64 -43.0% -48.4% 27% 25% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 25% -19.7%
10% -53.4% 23% -27.4%
15% -57.9% 20% -34.4%
20% -62.0% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $29.16 (match) · 195 history records