Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FE 0xfe9b…cbe5 sports 515 markets active 5h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,997 (+4%) realized +$1,997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%213W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$363
14 days+$519
30 days+$1,415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,603
other 1% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -43.6% -49.0% 30% 30% -26.6%
≤30d 168 +10.3% -0.2% 40% 40% -1.1%
≤90d 429 +18.7% +7.4% 42% 41% -5.4%
all 515 +17.3% +6.1% 41% 40% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 40% -6.4%
10% -4.1% 39% -15.4%
15% -13.3% 37% -23.5%
20% -21.8% 34% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$78 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses213 / 302
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions0
Markets (closed)515 / 515
History coverage236d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 515 Trades
no open positions (281 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $68 +$134 +196%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $199 +$134 +67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $132 +$60 +46%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $158 +$100 +64%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $239 +$229 +96%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $32 −$31 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $67 +$39 +59%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $125 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $154 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $119 −$117 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $91 −$89 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$148 +121%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $48 +$99 +206%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$70 +70%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $56 +$54 +97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $102 +$125 +122%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $37 +$56 +152%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $201 +$305 +152%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$74 +74%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$284 +93%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $62 +$55 +90%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $76 +$17 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $154 +$152 +99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 11 $50 +$195 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $25 4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 20¢ $16 5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 6h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $116 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $83 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY ECHO 29¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 68¢ $132 26h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 45¢ $44 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 28¢ $21 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $152 28h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 4¢ $1 34h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 67¢ $107 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $51 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 99¢ $468 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 49¢ $64 2d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $73 2d
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $32 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 21¢ $36 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 20¢ $41 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 20¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 41¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 38¢ $47 3d
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 30¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 45¢ $102 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 62¢ $67 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1101 history records