Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe99…506b sports 722 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$425 (+3%) realized +$379 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%395W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$345
14 days+$179
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +4.5% -5.5% 65% 63% -0.9%
≤30d 340 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 52% -12.9%
≤90d 712 +7.4% -2.9% 55% 51% -7.9%
all 713 +7.3% -2.9% 55% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 50% -7.9%
10% -12.2% 44% -16.7%
15% -20.7% 36% -24.8%
20% -28.4% 28% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$379
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses395 / 318
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions9
Markets (closed)713 / 722
History coverage167d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 35¢ 64¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+84%)
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 68¢ 98¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 67¢ 74¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Mees Rottgering 89¢ 98¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 88¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $30 +$11 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $30 +$19 +62%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $31 +$41 +134%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $31 +$39 +129%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $30 +$19 +62%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $31 +$55 +180%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $30 +$34 +111%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $30 −$1 -3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $31 +$55 +180%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $31 +$44 +146%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $10 +$21 +206%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $30 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $30 +$20 +65%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 66¢ $30 16m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 68¢ $30 16m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 50¢ $30 16m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 86¢ $30 16m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 35¢ $31 48m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 88¢ $30 1h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Mees Rottgering 89¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 67¢ $30 1h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 68¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 72¢ $30 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $30 9h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 60¢ $30 17h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 22¢ $31 19h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 26¢ $31 19h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 37¢ $31 19h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 64¢ $30 20h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 85¢ $30 20h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $31 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 42¢ $31 21h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 75¢ $30 21h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 76¢ $30 22h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 43¢ $31 24h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 59¢ $30 24h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 38¢ $31 25h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 42¢ $31 25h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 59¢ $10 37h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $31 41h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $10 42h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 57¢ $10 43h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 47¢ $30 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.62 · official $315.62 (match) · 1475 history records